Combat Edge Intelligence

Allan Nascimento vs Dustin Ortiz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record20-9-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'5"
69"Reach65,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamCombat Sports Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Allan NascimentoNow 1683
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667
Dustin OrtizNow 1687
If they win+12→ 1699
If they lose-12→ 1675

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.06
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
56%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
52%
Strike defense
56%
1.26
Takedown avg.
3.01
23%
Takedown accuracy
36%
38%
Takedown defense
53%
1.05
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Allan NascimentoDustin Ortiz
17002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
8 (40%)
15 (68%)
Submission
5 (25%)
5 (23%)
Decision
7 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Allan Nascimento66%
Dustin Ortiz 34%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Allan Nascimento a 66% favorite over Dustin Ortiz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dustin Ortiz's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1687), separated by just 4 points.

Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Ortiz 65%.

Allan Nascimento carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.