Anas Nfaou vs Dan Downes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record8-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Submission Factory MMATeamRoufusport
What's at stake
Anas Nfaou is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Dan Downes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1543
If they lose-25→ 1495
If they win+25→ 1526
If they lose-23→ 1478
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1501 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anas NfaouDan Downes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anas Nfaou73%
Dan Downes 27%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Anas Nfaou a 73% favorite over Dan Downes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Anas Nfaou holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1520 to 1501, a 19-point edge.
Anas Nfaou finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Dan Downes 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.