Combat Edge Intelligence

André Lima vs Mitch Raposo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record11-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'5"
67″Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Lucas MineiroTeamRegiment Training Center

What's at stake

André Lima is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mitch Raposo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

André LimaNow 1718
If they win+14→ 1732
If they lose-18→ 1700
Mitch RaposoNow 1669
If they win+18→ 1687
If they lose-14→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.06
Sig. strikes / min
1.73
60%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.49
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.65
58%
Strike defense
61%
1.36
Takedown avg.
2.54
75%
Takedown accuracy
38%
75%
Takedown defense
62%
1.14
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

André LimaMitch Raposo
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
1 (10%)
Submission
3 (27%)
4 (40%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

André Lima51%
Mitch Raposo 49%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes André Lima a 51% favorite over Mitch Raposo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

André Lima holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1718 to 1669, a 49-point edge.

Mitch Raposo enters on a 2-fight win streak.

André Lima finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Raposo 64%.

André Lima carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.