Combat Edge Intelligence

Andre Pederneiras vs Nonato Junior

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

1-1-2Record19-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
160 lbsWeight161 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamGameness Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andre PederneirasNow 1516
If they win+25→ 1541
If they lose-23→ 1493
Nonato JuniorNow 1525
If they win+12→ 1537
If they lose-12→ 1513

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1587 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Andre PederneirasNonato Junior
1500155016001999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (100%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
0 (0%)
Submission
16 (84%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Nonato Junior60%
Andre Pederneiras 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nonato Junior a 60% favorite over Andre Pederneiras in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1516 vs 1525), separated by just 9 points.

Nonato Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nonato Junior 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.