Andrei Arlovski vs Thomas Petersen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
77"Reach74"
245 lbsWeight257 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSpartan MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1649
If they lose-12→ 1625
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiThomas Petersen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thomas Petersen73%
Andrei Arlovski 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 73% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1639), separated by just 2 points.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.
Andrei Arlovski and Thomas Petersen share 2 common opponents: Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Don'Tale Mayes.
Andrei Arlovski carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.