Angel Alvarez vs Jonatas Novaes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record13-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNovaes BJJ Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Angel AlvarezJonatas Novaes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Angel Alvarez66%
Jonatas Novaes 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 66% favorite over Jonatas Novaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1609), separated by just 1 points.
Angel Alvarez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jonatas Novaes enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Jonatas Novaes 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.