Angel Alvarez vs Kajan Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record23-13-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
69"Reach75,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Angel AlvarezKajan Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Angel Alvarez63%
Kajan Johnson 37%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 63% favorite over Kajan Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kajan Johnson's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1615), separated by just 5 points.
Angel Alvarez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Kajan Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Kajan Johnson 70%.
Kajan Johnson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.