Combat Edge Intelligence

Angel Alvarez vs Matt Sayles

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record8-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
69"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Angel AlvarezNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
Matt SaylesNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.83
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.36
TBD
Takedown accuracy
17%
TBD
Takedown defense
82%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.72

Trajectory

Angel AlvarezMatt Sayles
1550160016502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (13%)
7 (64%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Angel Alvarez and Matt Sayles within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1613), separated by just 3 points.

Angel Alvarez enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Matt Sayles 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.