Antônio César vs Lucas Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
13-2-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'2"
-Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Carioca AcademyTeamRenovacao Coari Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio CésarLucas Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio César59%
Lucas Rocha 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio César a 59% favorite over Lucas Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Rocha's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1678), separated by just 3 points.
Antônio César enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Antônio César finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.
Antônio César and Lucas Rocha share 1 common opponent: Rodrigo de Moura.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2023
WinKO (Punches) · 2020