Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Vadim Nemkov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record19-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
77"Reach76"
240 lbsWeight242 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamFedorTeam
What's at stake
Vadim Nemkov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1813
If they lose-11→ 1789
If they win+15→ 1831
If they lose-17→ 1799
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraVadim Nemkov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vadim Nemkov79%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 21%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Vadim Nemkov a 79% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Vadim Nemkov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1816 to 1800, a 16-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Vadim Nemkov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Vadim Nemkov 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.