Combat Edge Intelligence

Anton Berzin vs Caio Machado

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Caio Machado
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Caio Machado

“Bigfoot”

13-5-1Light HeavyweightUAEW

1578Solid

Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record13-5-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
TBDReach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Rocco Mixed Martial ArtsTeamFranco Kickboxing and Pankration

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Anton BerzinNow 1577
If they win+24→ 1601
If they lose-24→ 1553
Caio MachadoNow 1578
If they win+12→ 1590
If they lose-12→ 1566

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1514 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.40
Sig. strikes / min
5.82
47%
Strike accuracy
54%
6.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.87
67%
Strike defense
64%
2
Takedown avg.
0
29%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
82%
1
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Anton BerzinCaio Machado
1500155016002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
9 (69%)
4 (80%)
Submission
2 (15%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Caio Machado60%
Anton Berzin 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 60% favorite over Anton Berzin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1577 vs 1578), separated by just 1 points.

Anton Berzin finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Caio Machado 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.