Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Fofirca vs Colton Smith

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record7-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Black Panther GymTeamVanguard

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antonio FofircaNow 1566
If they win+24→ 1590
If they lose-24→ 1542
Colton SmithNow 1560
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.64
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.30
TBD
Strike defense
52%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.09
TBD
Takedown accuracy
36%
TBD
Takedown defense
25%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.36

Trajectory

Antonio FofircaColton Smith
1550160020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
1 (25%)
Submission
1 (14%)
1 (25%)
Decision
4 (57%)

Combat Edge model read

Antonio Fofirca59%
Colton Smith 41%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Antonio Fofirca a 59% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1560), separated by just 6 points.

Antonio Fofirca finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Colton Smith 43%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.