Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Fofirca vs Jorge Gurgel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record14-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
The Black Panther GymTeamTeam Jorge Gurgel

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antonio FofircaNow 1566
If they win+24→ 1590
If they lose-24→ 1542
Jorge GurgelNow 1564
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.40
TBD
Strike accuracy
33%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.83
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.86
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.14

Trajectory

Antonio FofircaJorge Gurgel
15501600201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (50%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (25%)
Submission
10 (71%)
1 (25%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Antonio Fofirca66%
Jorge Gurgel 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Antonio Fofirca a 66% favorite over Jorge Gurgel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1564), separated by just 2 points.

Jorge Gurgel enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Antonio Fofirca finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Gurgel 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.