Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Trócoli vs Jonathan Wilson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record9-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
79"Reach75,0"
186 lbsWeight217 lbs
LG SystemTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antonio TrócoliNow 1541
If they win+16→ 1557
If they lose-16→ 1525
Jonathan WilsonNow 1546
If they win+16→ 1562
If they lose-16→ 1530

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.37
Sig. strikes / min
2.92
50%
Strike accuracy
48%
5.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.65
24%
Strike defense
56%
0.79
Takedown avg.
0.37
10%
Takedown accuracy
100%
33%
Takedown defense
80%
0.79
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Antonio TrócoliJonathan Wilson
15501600202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
6 (67%)
5 (42%)
Submission
1 (11%)
4 (33%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Jonathan Wilson54%
Antonio Trócoli 46%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Wilson a 54% favorite over Antonio Trócoli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1541 vs 1546), separated by just 5 points.

Antonio Trócoli enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jonathan Wilson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antonio Trócoli finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Wilson 78%.

Antonio Trócoli carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.