Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio César vs Igor Severino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-2-0Record10-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
-Reach69"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Carioca AcademyTeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antônio CésarNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Igor SeverinoNow 1679
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
7.17
TBD
Strike accuracy
52%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
TBD
Strike defense
48%
TBD
Takedown avg.
9.69
TBD
Takedown accuracy
71%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Antônio CésarIgor Severino
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
2 (15%)
Submission
4 (40%)
8 (62%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Igor Severino53%
Antônio César 47%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Igor Severino a 53% favorite over Antônio César in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1679), separated by just 4 points.

Antônio César enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Igor Severino enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Antônio César finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Igor Severino 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.