Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio César vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-2-0Record10-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
-Reach67"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
Carioca AcademyTeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antônio CésarNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Lone’er KavanaghNow 1670
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.13
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.49
TBD
Strike defense
57%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.12
TBD
Takedown accuracy
45%
TBD
Takedown defense
94%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.22

Trajectory

Antônio CésarLone’er Kavanagh
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
2 (15%)
Submission
1 (10%)
8 (62%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Antônio César and Lone’er Kavanagh within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1670), separated by just 5 points.

Antônio César enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Antônio César finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.