Combat Edge Intelligence

Arijan Topallaj vs Igor Araujo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-1Record25-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
163 lbsWeight170 lbs
Planet EaterTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Arijan TopallajNow 1640
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
Igor AraujoNow 1639
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-12→ 1627

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.52
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.86
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.86
TBD
Takedown accuracy
16%
TBD
Takedown defense
22%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Arijan TopallajIgor Araujo
1600165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (4%)
3 (30%)
Submission
17 (68%)
2 (20%)
Decision
7 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Arijan Topallaj71%
Igor Araujo 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 71% favorite over Igor Araujo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Igor Araujo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Igor Araujo 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.