Combat Edge Intelligence

Arijan Topallaj vs John Hathaway

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-1Record18-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-Reach75,5"
163 lbsWeight170 lbs
Planet EaterTeamLondon Shootfighters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Arijan TopallajNow 1640
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
John HathawayNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1623 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.40
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.80
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.61
TBD
Takedown accuracy
44%
TBD
Takedown defense
61%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.87

Trajectory

Arijan TopallajJohn Hathaway
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (33%)
3 (30%)
Submission
3 (17%)
2 (20%)
Decision
9 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Arijan Topallaj70%
John Hathaway 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 70% favorite over John Hathaway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, John Hathaway 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.