Arijan Topallaj vs Nathan Coy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-1Record15-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-Reach39,0"
163 lbsWeight170 lbs
Planet EaterTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arijan TopallajNathan Coy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arijan Topallaj70%
Nathan Coy 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 70% favorite over Nathan Coy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.
Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Coy 47%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.