Arijan Topallaj vs Sergio Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-1Record14-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
-Reach72,0"
163 lbsWeight170 lbs
Planet EaterTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arijan TopallajSergio Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arijan Topallaj70%
Sergio Moraes 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 70% favorite over Sergio Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sergio Moraes's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1641), separated by just 1 points.
Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Moraes 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.