Combat Edge Intelligence

Arman Tsarukyan vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-3-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
72"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamH2O MMA

What's at stake

Arman Tsarukyan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Olivier Aubin-Mercier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Arman TsarukyanNow 1838
If they win+10→ 1848
If they lose-14→ 1824
Olivier Aubin-MercierNow 1794
If they win+14→ 1808
If they lose-10→ 1784

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
50%
Strike accuracy
51%
1.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
55%
Strike defense
56%
3.26
Takedown avg.
2.36
4%
Takedown accuracy
34%
75%
Takedown defense
71%
0.10
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Arman TsarukyanOlivier Aubin-Mercier
17001750180018502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (39%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
6 (26%)
Submission
8 (38%)
8 (35%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Arman Tsarukyan75%
Olivier Aubin-Mercier 25%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Arman Tsarukyan a 75% favorite over Olivier Aubin-Mercier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Arman Tsarukyan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1838 to 1794, a 44-point edge.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.

Arman Tsarukyan carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.