Ashe Bowman vs Cristiano Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-11-0Record2-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
Lion's DenTeamPortugal Top Team
What's at stake
Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Ashe Bowman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1458
If they lose-14→ 1426
If they win+22→ 1496
If they lose-26→ 1448
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashe BowmanCristiano Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cristiano Oliveira83%
Ashe Bowman 17%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 83% favorite over Ashe Bowman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1440, a 34-point edge.
Ashe Bowman enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ashe Bowman finishes 89% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.