Ashley Thiner vs Daniel Lacerda
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-0-0Record12-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'6"
N/AReach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Three Kings Muay ThaiTeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
If they win+16→ 1523
If they lose-16→ 1491
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
TBDPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Thiner51%
Daniel Lacerda 49%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Thiner a 51% favorite over Daniel Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Lacerda's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1507), separated by just 7 points.
Daniel Lacerda 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.