Ashley Thiner vs Iliarde Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record32-16-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'3"
66" ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Three Kings Muay ThaiTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1579
If they lose-24→ 1531
If they win+12→ 1570
If they lose-12→ 1546
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ThinerIliarde Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Thiner70%
Iliarde Santos 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Thiner a 70% favorite over Iliarde Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Iliarde Santos's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1555 vs 1558), separated by just 3 points.
Ashley Thiner enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Iliarde Santos 66%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.