Combat Edge Intelligence

Ashley Thiner vs Paddy Holohan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-0-0Record12-2-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'9"
66" Reach39.00
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Three Kings Muay ThaiTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ashley ThinerNow 1555
If they win+24→ 1579
If they lose-24→ 1531
Paddy HolohanNow 1551
If they win+24→ 1575
If they lose-24→ 1527

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
TBD
Strike defense
46%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.88
TBD
Takedown accuracy
48%
TBD
Takedown defense
71%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Ashley ThinerPaddy Holohan
1500155020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
0 (0%)
Submission
8 (67%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Ashley Thiner66%
Paddy Holohan 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Thiner a 66% favorite over Paddy Holohan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1555 vs 1551), separated by just 4 points.

Ashley Thiner enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Paddy Holohan 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.