Askar Mozharov vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-14-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height-
74"Reach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
AKA ThailandTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
Askar Mozharov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1509
If they lose-13→ 1485
If they win+26→ 1497
If they lose-22→ 1449
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Askar MozharovMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke59%
Askar Mozharov 41%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 59% favorite over Askar Mozharov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Askar Mozharov's way (46%).
Askar Mozharov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1498 to 1471, a 27-point edge.
Askar Mozharov finishes 93% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.