Combat Edge Intelligence

Augusto Sakai vs Mohammed Usman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-1Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach79"
264 lbsWeight237 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWar Room Kickboxing & MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Augusto SakaiNow 1634
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
Mohammed UsmanNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.60
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
49%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.27
49%
Strike defense
51%
0.23
Takedown avg.
0.56
40%
Takedown accuracy
14%
56%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Augusto SakaiMohammed Usman
16502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

11 (69%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (18%)
5 (31%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Augusto Sakai and Mohammed Usman within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1634 vs 1638), separated by just 4 points.

Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Augusto Sakai finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.

Mohammed Usman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.