Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Hubbard vs Don Madge

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Don Madge
za

Don Madge

“Magic Man”

11-5-1WelterweightPFL

1618Solid

Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record11-5-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"Reach72,5"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamFightFit Militia

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin HubbardNow 1619
If they win+12→ 1631
If they lose-12→ 1607
Don MadgeNow 1618
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1628 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
2.08
44%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.74
56%
Strike defense
67%
1.59
Takedown avg.
2.22
32%
Takedown accuracy
25%
68%
Takedown defense
80%
0.11
Submission avg.
0.74

Trajectory

Austin HubbardDon Madge
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
2 (13%)
Submission
5 (45%)
9 (56%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Hubbard59%
Don Madge 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Hubbard a 59% favorite over Don Madge in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1618), separated by just 1 points.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Austin Hubbard finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Don Madge 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.