Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Hubbard vs Mizuto Hirota

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record18-11-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
71"Reach67,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamCave

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin HubbardNow 1619
If they win+12→ 1631
If they lose-12→ 1607
Mizuto HirotaNow 1618
If they win+12→ 1630
If they lose-12→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1628 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
3.36
44%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.50
56%
Strike defense
55%
1.59
Takedown avg.
1.36
32%
Takedown accuracy
50%
68%
Takedown defense
59%
0.11
Submission avg.
0.12

Trajectory

Austin HubbardMizuto Hirota
16001650201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
2 (13%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (56%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Hubbard65%
Mizuto Hirota 35%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Hubbard a 65% favorite over Mizuto Hirota in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1618), separated by just 1 points.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mizuto Hirota enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Austin Hubbard finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Mizuto Hirota 56%.

Austin Hubbard carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.