Austin Vanderford vs Keita Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record36-12-2
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach73,0"
185 lbsWeight156 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamUnited Gym Tokyo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1706
If they lose-16→ 1674
If they win+12→ 1704
If they lose-12→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1638 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Austin VanderfordKeita Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keita Nakamura53%
Austin Vanderford 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Keita Nakamura a 53% favorite over Austin Vanderford in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1690 vs 1692), separated by just 2 points.
Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.