Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Vanderford vs Keita Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record36-12-2
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach73,0"
185 lbsWeight156 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamUnited Gym Tokyo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin VanderfordNow 1691
If they win+16→ 1707
If they lose-16→ 1675
Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.04
Sig. strikes / min
2.23
59%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
48%
Strike defense
59%
3.08
Takedown avg.
1.65
36%
Takedown accuracy
49%
100%
Takedown defense
64%
1.23
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Austin VanderfordKeita Nakamura
170020242025

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
9 (25%)
3 (23%)
Submission
16 (44%)
5 (38%)
Decision
11 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Vanderford72%
Keita Nakamura 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Vanderford a 72% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keita Nakamura's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1693), separated by just 2 points.

Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.