Combat Edge Intelligence

Ayinda Octave vs Joe Hurley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record12-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tauras Martial ArtsTeamLion's Den

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ayinda OctaveNow 1593
If they win+24→ 1617
If they lose-24→ 1569
Joe HurleyNow 1591
If they win+16→ 1607
If they lose-16→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ayinda OctaveJoe Hurley
16001650200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
1 (14%)
Submission
6 (50%)
2 (29%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Ayinda Octave62%
Joe Hurley 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ayinda Octave a 62% favorite over Joe Hurley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1593 vs 1591), separated by just 2 points.

Ayinda Octave enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ayinda Octave finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Joe Hurley 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.