Combat Edge Intelligence

Ayinda Octave vs Naoyuki Kotani

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record37-19-7
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tauras Martial ArtsTeamRodeo Style

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ayinda OctaveNow 1593
If they win+24→ 1617
If they lose-24→ 1569
Naoyuki KotaniNow 1594
If they win+12→ 1606
If they lose-12→ 1582

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.02
TBD
Strike accuracy
31%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.89
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.83
TBD
Takedown accuracy
17%
TBD
Takedown defense
47%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Ayinda OctaveNaoyuki Kotani
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
6 (16%)
1 (14%)
Submission
27 (73%)
2 (29%)
Decision
4 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Ayinda Octave62%
Naoyuki Kotani 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ayinda Octave a 62% favorite over Naoyuki Kotani in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Naoyuki Kotani's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1593 vs 1594), separated by just 1 points.

Ayinda Octave enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Naoyuki Kotani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ayinda Octave finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Naoyuki Kotani 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.