Bas Rutten vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-4-1Record15-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'5"
--Reach78"
205 lbsWeight251 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1793
If they lose-12→ 1769
If they win+16→ 1791
If they lose-16→ 1759
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bas RuttenTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall52%
Bas Rutten 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 52% favorite over Bas Rutten in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Bas Rutten's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1781 vs 1775), separated by just 6 points.
Bas Rutten enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Bas Rutten finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.