Ben Johnston vs Jason Day
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record19-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
75"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
The Fight CentreTeamChampion's Creed MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1593
If they lose-24→ 1545
If they win+12→ 1584
If they lose-12→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ben JohnstonJason Day
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ben Johnston66%
Jason Day 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ben Johnston a 66% favorite over Jason Day in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Day's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1569 vs 1572), separated by just 3 points.
Jason Day enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ben Johnston finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jason Day 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.