Combat Edge Intelligence

Blas Avena vs Nonato Junior

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-7-0Record19-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight161 lbs
Machado Jiu JitsuTeamGameness Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Blas AvenaNow 1527
If they win+16→ 1543
If they lose-16→ 1511
Nonato JuniorNow 1525
If they win+12→ 1537
If they lose-12→ 1513

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1567 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.34
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
43%
Strike defense
TBD
2.37
Takedown avg.
TBD
80%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.78
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Blas AvenaNonato Junior
150015501600201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
6 (75%)
Submission
16 (84%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Nonato Junior70%
Blas Avena 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nonato Junior a 70% favorite over Blas Avena in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Blas Avena's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1527 vs 1525), separated by just 2 points.

Nonato Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Blas Avena finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nonato Junior 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.