Brad Katona vs Raulian Paiva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record23-6-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
64"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1663
If they lose-16→ 1631
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad KatonaRaulian Paiva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raulian Paiva60%
Brad Katona 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Raulian Paiva a 60% favorite over Brad Katona in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1647 vs 1648), separated by just 1 points.
Brad Katona enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brad Katona finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Raulian Paiva 30%.
Raulian Paiva carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.