Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Pickett vs Francisco Rivera

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-14-0Record16-10-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68,0"Reach68,0"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAll In MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brad PickettNow 1622
If they win+12→ 1634
If they lose-12→ 1610
Francisco RiveraNow 1611
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1665 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.02
Sig. strikes / min
4.07
32%
Strike accuracy
41%
4.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.16
56%
Strike defense
68%
2.47
Takedown avg.
1.01
45%
Takedown accuracy
64%
58%
Takedown defense
68%
0.44
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

Brad PickettFrancisco Rivera
16001650201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

7 (28%)
KO/TKO
10 (63%)
10 (40%)
Submission
0 (0%)
8 (32%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Rivera60%
Brad Pickett 40%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Rivera a 60% favorite over Brad Pickett in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brad Pickett's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1611), separated by just 11 points.

Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Brad Pickett finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Rivera 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.