Brandon Jenkins vs Shamar Bailey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record16-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamSparta Indy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
If they win+12→ 1562
If they lose-12→ 1538
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon JenkinsShamar Bailey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Jenkins60%
Shamar Bailey 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Jenkins a 60% favorite over Shamar Bailey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shamar Bailey's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1549 vs 1550), separated by just 1 points.
Shamar Bailey enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brandon Jenkins finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Shamar Bailey 53%.
Brandon Jenkins and Shamar Bailey share 1 common opponent: Jordin Hinman.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
WinSpinning Back Elbow · 2020
Win Decision · 2013