Brandon Jenkins vs Tristan Arenal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record7-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamUnlimited MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon JenkinsTristan Arenal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Brandon Jenkins and Tristan Arenal within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1549 vs 1540), separated by just 9 points.
Brandon Jenkins finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Arenal 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.