Brandon Royval vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record14-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'8"
68"Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Factory XTeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1709
If they lose-12→ 1685
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon RoyvalSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Erceg60%
Brandon Royval 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Erceg a 60% favorite over Brandon Royval in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1705), separated by just 8 points.
Brandon Royval enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Steve Erceg enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brandon Royval finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg share 3 common opponents: Brandon Moreno, Alexandre Pantoja and Matt Schnell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2023
LossSubmission · 2021
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2024