Braxton Smith vs Marcos Brigagao
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record17-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'4"
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight210 lbs
Black Sheep BoxingTeamD.O METHODOLOGY
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1591
If they lose-24→ 1543
If they win+16→ 1588
If they lose-16→ 1556
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Braxton SmithMarcos Brigagao
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Braxton Smith59%
Marcos Brigagao 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Braxton Smith a 59% favorite over Marcos Brigagao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcos Brigagao's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1572), separated by just 5 points.
Marcos Brigagao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Braxton Smith finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Brigagao 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.