Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ebersole vs Josiah Harrell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

51-18-1Record11-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'7"
TBDReach68"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamGrove City BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brian EbersoleNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Josiah HarrellNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.32
Sig. strikes / min
0
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
1.70
Takedown avg.
TBD
23%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
62%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.13
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Brian EbersoleJosiah Harrell
165017002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (33%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
17 (33%)
Submission
4 (36%)
17 (33%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Josiah Harrell72%
Brian Ebersole 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josiah Harrell a 72% favorite over Brian Ebersole in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1685), separated by just 2 points.

Brian Ebersole enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brian Ebersole finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Josiah Harrell 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.