Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ebersole vs Mike Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

51-18-1Record11-1-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brian EbersoleNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Mike GravesNow 1683
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.32
Sig. strikes / min
1.25
50%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.47
56%
Strike defense
59%
1.70
Takedown avg.
4.80
23%
Takedown accuracy
52%
62%
Takedown defense
67%
0.13
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Brian EbersoleMike Graves
1700201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

17 (33%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
17 (33%)
Submission
3 (27%)
17 (33%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Graves72%
Brian Ebersole 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Graves a 72% favorite over Brian Ebersole in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Ebersole's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1683), separated by just 0 points.

Brian Ebersole enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Graves enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Brian Ebersole finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.