Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Foster vs Zach Scroggin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-13-0Record7-1-0
LightweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'3"
TBDReach74"
155 lbsWeight183 lbs
Factory XTeamMarathon MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brian FosterNow 1624
If they win+12→ 1636
If they lose-12→ 1612
Zach ScrogginNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
2.40
40%
Strike accuracy
38%
1.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.80
65%
Strike defense
69%
3.67
Takedown avg.
0
60%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
38%
Takedown defense
0%
1.83
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Brian FosterZach Scroggin
1500155016001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

15 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
14 (47%)
Submission
2 (29%)
1 (3%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Zach Scroggin66%
Brian Foster 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Zach Scroggin a 66% favorite over Brian Foster in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Foster's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1624 vs 1623), separated by just 1 points.

Brian Foster finishes 97% of wins inside the distance, Zach Scroggin 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.