Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Kelleher vs Pingyuan Liu

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-16-0Record15-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
66"Reach72,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Maxum BJJTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brian KelleherNow 1635
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
Pingyuan LiuNow 1634
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.36
41%
Strike accuracy
34%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
55%
Strike defense
54%
1.68
Takedown avg.
0.25
42%
Takedown accuracy
20%
60%
Takedown defense
56%
0.67
Submission avg.
1.02

Trajectory

Brian KelleherPingyuan Liu
165017002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
10 (42%)
Submission
6 (40%)
6 (25%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Pingyuan Liu72%
Brian Kelleher 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Pingyuan Liu a 72% favorite over Brian Kelleher in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Kelleher's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1634), separated by just 1 points.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Pingyuan Liu enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brian Kelleher finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Pingyuan Liu 67%.

Pingyuan Liu carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.