Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Logan vs Justin Buchholz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-10-0Record16-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamIndependent

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bryce LoganNow 1540
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524
Justin BuchholzNow 1532
If they win+12→ 1544
If they lose-12→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.35
TBD
Strike accuracy
27%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
33%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Bryce LoganJustin Buchholz
155020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
1 (8%)
Submission
6 (40%)
8 (62%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Logan58%
Justin Buchholz 42%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Logan a 58% favorite over Justin Buchholz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1540 vs 1532), separated by just 8 points.

Bryce Logan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bryce Logan finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Justin Buchholz 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.