Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Logan vs Shannon Gugerty

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-10-0Record15-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight145 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamVictory MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bryce LoganNow 1540
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524
Shannon GugertyNow 1535
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.25
TBD
Strike accuracy
39%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.88
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.13
TBD
Takedown accuracy
28%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
3.41

Trajectory

Bryce LoganShannon Gugerty
1500155020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
1 (8%)
Submission
11 (73%)
8 (62%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Logan57%
Shannon Gugerty 43%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Logan a 57% favorite over Shannon Gugerty in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1540 vs 1535), separated by just 5 points.

Bryce Logan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bryce Logan finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Shannon Gugerty 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.