Combat Edge Intelligence

C.J. Keith vs Cristiano Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record2-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
Pro BuhaweTeamPortugal Top Team

What's at stake

Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — C.J. Keith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

C.J. KeithNow 1452
If they win+26→ 1478
If they lose-22→ 1430
Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+22→ 1496
If they lose-26→ 1448

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1561 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.86
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
1.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
50%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
63%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

C.J. KeithCristiano Oliveira
1450150020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
1 (50%)
2 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (38%)
Decision
1 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira78%
C.J. Keith 22%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 78% favorite over C.J. Keith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1452, a 22-point edge.

C.J. Keith enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

C.J. Keith finishes 63% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.