Cain Carrizosa vs Kaiwen Li
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
Elite TeamTeamK-1 Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cain CarrizosaKaiwen Li
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kaiwen Li55%
Cain Carrizosa 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kaiwen Li a 55% favorite over Cain Carrizosa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cain Carrizosa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1564), separated by just 0 points.
Cain Carrizosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kaiwen Li enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cain Carrizosa finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Kaiwen Li 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.