Combat Edge Intelligence

Callum Haughian vs Cesar Arzamendia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record10-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
-Reach71,0"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamParaguay Combat Team

What's at stake

Callum Haughian is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Cesar Arzamendia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Callum HaughianNow 1519
If they win+23→ 1542
If they lose-25→ 1494
Cesar ArzamendiaNow 1499
If they win+17→ 1516
If they lose-15→ 1484

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1487 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.37
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.20
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
7.32
TBD
Takedown accuracy
75%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.44

Trajectory

Callum HaughianCesar Arzamendia
1500155020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
1 (50%)
Submission
4 (40%)
1 (50%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Callum Haughian66%
Cesar Arzamendia 34%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Callum Haughian a 66% favorite over Cesar Arzamendia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Callum Haughian holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1519 to 1499, a 20-point edge.

Cesar Arzamendia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Cesar Arzamendia 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.